ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS THAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS.
Good Evening Everyone. According to the latest model data Tropical Depression 11 is going nowhere. The Latest Model data shows the Depression going in a loop and then heading northeast as a tropical storm. This season has been fairly quiet. considering last year's storms we are having little activity. With luck the season might pick up. We will continue to watch this storm. -Bobby Koenig
Chief Weather Forecaster, B Weather Weather Forecaster, NESU Overnight we received the new model run that starts off each day. In this model run, all the models shifted eastward and formed a tight consensus on track/intensity. Also notice, the models have slowed down just a tad. However, this won't really matter as the storm is not likely to affect even the coast at this point. Just a slight increase in cloudiness and maybe, maybe a shift in winds. The one possible exception would be Cape Cod. That area might receive a brief shower or two but nothing significant for them either. TD 11 in the Atlantic basin- Overnight, TD 11 formed in the Central Atlantic. It is forecast to do a little loop-de-loop then go out to sea. No impacts will be felt here in New England. In fact, before satellites in the 1960's we probably wouldn't of known it was there. Top winds right now are 35mph The minimum pressure is 1010mb It is moving Northeast at 9mph Check our tropical weather resources tab under "Links" above for some sites to get even more information about this storm. I've highlighted TD 11 on this infrared satellite image as it is very hard to figure out where it might be (I had to double check the coordinates because I was unsure). You can clearly see a cold front sweeping across the US as well as (but not as clearly) a trough of low pressure in the Caribbean that will eventually move into the Gulf and hit the Gulf coast, possibly as a tropical entity. We'll have to watch it very carefully as it could cause problems. Even here in New England, the remnants could bring some decent rain.
-Jack Sillin, Chief forecaster, NESU (New England Storm Updates) Forecaster, Bweather Chief writer Forecasterjack |